Biodiesel policies and refinery outages tighten global supply

The glycerine market is facing a turbulent mid-2025, with prices surging across key regions due to a combination of feedstock shortages, refinery disruptions, and soaring demand from end-use industries like pharmaceuticals, personal care, and food. As a crucial ingredient in everything from cough syrups to skincare products, glycerine’s price movements are drawing renewed attention from manufacturers and buyers alike.

 

Source: ChemAnalyst (monthly pricing), Alchempro (India), BusinessAnalytiq (regional pricing)

 

According to ChemAnalyst, glycerine prices have become increasingly volatile over the past several weeks. The root cause? A tightening global supply chain — driven not just by demand, but also by regulatory and policy shifts reshaping the palm oil and petrochemical markets.

Indonesia’s B40 Mandate and Refinery Downtime Shake Up Supply

 

Sources: ChemAnalyst, CIMB Securities, Alchempro, Stratas Advisors, TradingEconomics, Fibre2fashion

 

A major factor in the current volatility is Indonesia’s full nationwide rollout of its B40 biodiesel mandate, which officially came into effect in July 2025. By mandating a 40% palm oil blend in diesel fuel, Indonesia is diverting significant volumes of palm oil — and by extension, palm stearin, a key feedstock for natural glycerine production — away from industrial and export channels.

This shift has already rippled through global markets. Producers in Southeast Asia are facing rising costs and tighter availability, while buyers in markets like India and China are paying a premium. Alchempro reports that glycerine prices in India jumped 44.4% year-on-year in June 2025, reaching ₹102.5/kg — driven by strong demand from pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries amid shrinking supplies.

Meanwhile, synthetic glycerine, often derived from petrochemical sources like propylene, isn't offering much relief. Major refinery outages — both planned and unexpected — have curbed petrochemical output, adding more pressure to already strained glycerine markets. According to Stratas Advisors, several large refineries have gone offline in recent weeks, further reducing synthetic supply.

Adding to the mix, global energy prices remain elevated, with Brent crude oil hovering high throughout mid-2025. As TradingEconomics notes, higher crude prices indirectly raise the cost of synthetic glycerine, keeping pressure on the market from both sides.

What’s Next for the Glycerine Market?

Despite the current challenges, long-term outlooks remain positive. Fibre2fashion projects the global glycerine market could reach $7.65 billion by 2030, fueled by growing demand in pharmaceuticals, food production, personal care, and industrial applications.

However, the short term is likely to remain rocky. Analysts warn that feedstock availability, future policy moves like a potential Indonesian B50 biodiesel mandate, and broader geopolitical uncertainties will shape how the market evolves in the months ahead.

For businesses relying on glycerine, the message is clear: this is the time for proactive procurement strategies, close monitoring of policy developments, and thoughtful hedging against price swings.